North Korea Will Reset the Nuclear Negotiations with Obama

Wednesday, Nov 19, 2008

The disablement of the Yongbyon facilities may not be completed during President Bush¡¯s term of office because economic and energy aid has been delayed.

North Korea stated last week that one key point of the verification, ¡°taking samples¡± from the nuclear facilities, can only be discussed in the abandonment phase, not the disablement phase. The Six Party Talks accordingly face a rocky road ahead.

A Japanese newspaper, Yomiuri Shimbun, quoted on the 15th a U.S. high official who claimed that the North Korean disablement process in the second phase could not be completed by January of next year due to the delayed energy aid.

Regarding Japan¡¯s refusal to give energy aid until the Japanese abduction issue is solved, the official said that the U.S. and Russia are in discussions to take on responsibility for the Japanese allotment of energy aid. However, budgetary allocation is up to the next administration. The official implied that the energy aid could not be sent to North Korea until the Obama administration ends budgetary deliberations in February.

North Korea stated in a Foreign Ministry¡¯s statement on the 12th that, ¡°The verification of the shut down of the facilities will start after the fulfillment of energy aid obligations.¡± Pro-North Korean newspaper the Chosun Shinbo also noted on the 15th that, ¡°Sampling can be discussed not in the disablement phase, but in the abandonment phase.¡±

According to Chosun Shinbo, the U.S. and North Korea agreed early in October that in this disablement phase only visiting the sites, confirming documents and interviewing engineers are possible, so sampling should be discussed after the relations between the U.S. and North Korea are improved.

The North Korea position means that North Korea does not want to discuss the sampling issue as part of the verification protocol, which is supposed to be adopted at the upcoming Six Party Talks. It seems to stem from ¡°salami tactics¡± wherein North Korea slices the process of nuclear abandonment as thinly as possible and then requires rewards after each sliced step in order to both maximize rewards and to lengthen the term for abandonment.

The U.S. initially planned to wrap up the second phase of disablement before the inauguration of the next President. However, the plan struck a snag.